NFL insider: Rookie QBs

ATLANTA — A study of rookie quarterbacks indicates that the Atlanta Falcons might as well pencil themselves in for a losing season if they start Matt Ryan from the beginning.

Since 1983 when Dan Marino went 7-2 as a rookie starter, only Ben Roethlisberger has won big in the regular season as a rookie starter. Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a starter in the regular season as the Steelers were powered by running backs Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis and wide receivers Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress.

Marino and Roethlisberger both were on powerful veteran teams.

"Marino was a late first-round draft pick going to a Super Bowl team," said Charlie Casserly, the former front office executive with Washington and Houston. "He ended up with a team that had already been in the Super Bowl. He was around good players."

Roethlisberger was set to sit and watch Tommy Maddox. But Maddox was injured in the second game of the season and Big Ben stepped in and took the Steelers to the AFC Championship game against New England, where he had three interceptions.

"They led the league in rushes," Casserly said. "That was a heck of a football team he was with. It's rare that a high drafted quarterback goes to a playoff team."

The Falcons went 4-12 last year and are admittedly in a rebuilding mode. The Falcons' final roster will likely not flex the strength of the '83 Dolphins or '04 Steelers. After giving up 47 sacks last year, the offensive line much show that it can pass protect.

A rookie quarterback's evolution and pocket presence can be ruined if he's under siege early in his career.

"The best way is to have them sit and have a veteran quarterback that he can look at and learn from," Casserly said. "Sometimes if those (veteran) quarterbacks aren't good enough, the players look at you like, 'Hey, you've got to play this guy. He's our best chance to win.' So it depends on circumstances."

From Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw to Peyton and Eli Manning, rookie quarterbacks have a long history of struggling in the NFL.

"Matt has progressed extremely fast in terms of picking up the offense," Falcons head coach Mike Smith said. "In the OTAs, he showed us that he was going to be able to get a good feel for what we are doing."

Ryan redshirted his first season at Boston College.

"I don't think there is any time frame on it," Ryan said. "I think you just show up every day and work hard and do everything you can to put a good effort out on the field. At B.C. it was kind of the same way."

Ryan will not say if he wants to start from the outset.

"I'm competing to try to get on the field," Ryan said. "It's just about trying to get better and not any of the long-term stuff."

Here's a look at how some rookie quarterbacks have fared in the NFL:

THE PAST 10 SUPER BOWL WINNING QUARTERBACKS' ROOKIE SEASONS

2008 — Eli Manning, New York Giants: Started seven games as a rookie in 2004 and was 1-6. He completed just 48.2 percent of his passes and threw nine interceptions.

2007 — Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: Started all 16 games as a rookie and posted a 3-13 record. Showed promise completing 56.7 percent of his passes. He also had 28 interceptions.

2006 — Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: Had the most successful rookie campaign of the modern era. He went 14-1 as a starter and completed 66.4 percent of his passes. Broke Dan Marino's NFL records for a rookie quarterback for completion percentage (66.4) and passer-rating (98.1)

2005, 2004, 2002 — Tom Brady, New England: Completed 1 of his 3 attempted passes. Showed no signs of what was to come as a rookie in 2000.

2003 — Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay: Played in four games with Minnesota as a rookie in 1994. Didn't become a starter until his third season.

2001 — Trent Dilfer, Baltimore: Was 0-2 as a starter his rookie season in 1994. Started all 16 games in his second season and posted a 7-9 record.

2000 — Kurt Warner, St. Louis: Completed 4-of-11 passes as a 27-year-old rookie in 1998 after a stint in the Arena Football League. He posted a 13-3 mark as a starter in year two.

1999, 1998 — John Elway, Denver: The future Hall of Famer was 4-6 as a rookie starter in 1983. He completed just 47.5 percent of his passes and threw 14 interceptions.

1997 — Brett Favre, Green Bay: Attempted only four passes as a rookie for the Falcons and didn't complete one.

1996 — Troy Aikman, Dallas: Started 11 games as a rookie and went 0-11. Threw nine touchdown passes and 18 interceptions.

D. Orlando Ledbetter writes for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.